The year will conclude with what should be the last win for the world’s pound-for-pound best boxer before he takes the challenge from his incredibly talented compatriot in one of the most highly-anticipated matches of 2026.
Naoya Inoue will be taking on who many see as being a massively out-classed opponent in David Picasso, but who quite rightly is ranked as the next challenger at super bantamweight. Such is The Monster’s dominance.
Here’s a look at the headline bout of what’s being called The Ring V: Night of the Samurai on 27 December in Saudi Arabia, as well as the other most prominent storyline of the night.
Inoue vs Picasso Preview
The last time Naoya Inoue was truly challenged and pushed beyond his known limits in the ring was back in June 2022. To win the World Boxing Super Series, he had to get past the savvy, seasoned Nonito Donaire at bantamweight.
In the final of this excellent tournament, the two went 12 rounds, with Inoue suffering a nasty gash above his eye that he had to deal with for several rounds. Inoue’s now-trademark liver blow was in grand form that night.
Since, the oft-reserved and composed Inoue has gone from strength-to-strength, dominating at bantamweight and now super bantamweight, giving him a bit of a showman side to his performances against hesitant opponents.
Inoue hits absurdly accurately and with enough power to cripple anyone at this weight. While offence is his primary defence, his upper-body movement and quick-stepping helps to make incoming attacks look poorly timed.
Inoue can just as easily capitalise on an errant punch or one that he’s dodged as he can beat through a guard or coax an open shot to the side of the body. Now, he boasts a menacing 31-0 record with 27 KOs.
David Picasso is the next up for Inoue, standing as a more style-orientated orthodox boxer with a 32-0-1 record and 17 KOs. After building his pro record from 2017 to 2024, he made a big step up in class in July.
On the undercard of the Barrios-Pacquiao card in Las Vegas at featherweight, the near-126-lbs Mexican utilised the jab to pick away at Kyonosuke Kameda, earning a victory that was more convincing than the mixed decision dealt.
Even with Picasso being highly ranked in the division, this likely would have been the choice for the Inoue camp.
Picasso isn’t one to throw too many heavy shots, grind away, or otherwise add to the wear and tear of 2025.
This will be Inoue’s fourth fight since the end of January this year. He beat an initially spirited Ye Joon Kim in four, rallied after a second-round kneel to beat Ramon Cardenas in the eighth, and went to the cards with Murodjon Akhmadaliev only three months ago.
Picasso only fought five months ago, and some might make the case for him having a chance because of the natural fatigue Inoue will be suffering from, but an upset seems very unlikely for the man who likes to box on the outside.
Inoue vs Picasso Predictions
As the betting odds heavily encourage, Inoue is predicted to win against Picasso and has absurdly long odds of 1/50 to do so. An upset by his 25-year-old foe is given odds of 12/1.
There’s a chance that the Japanese fighter will be a bit more conservative coming out of the gate. He might not feel the need to immediately hunt down the fast-moving Picasso, and instead wait for the best shot opportunities.
The fourth and fifth rounds are often where The Monster decides to put his foot down and force his agenda if he’s not already well ahead. So, a win for Inoue within the fourth to seventh is the call here.
Not Just About Inoue Winning for the Next Step
The super-stacked card in Saudi Arabia also has a tantalising B-plot. Inoue’s presumed next opponent, the 31-0 Junto Nakatani, will also battle at 122 lbs for the first time, having ruled as bantamweight’s WBC World champion.
Nakatani has been framed as another Inoue, dominating at multiple weights, claiming World titles at each, and taking on the best of the best as he scales the divisions.
In his first step up, the 27-year-old Big Bang will rumble with the 20-0 Sebastian Hernandez Reyes, who’s a top ten combatant in the division, but will be taking a big jump up when he faces Nakatani.
If all goes to plan, Nakatani will make good on his boxing odds of 1/16 to beat the 25-year-old in his first run at super bantamweight. Then, he can wait in the arena, watch Inoue win, and then square-off to begin the hype train for their mega-fight.
The undisputed champion of super bantamweight looks primed for yet another win after watching his likely next opponent also defeat an undefeated Mexican. If all goes to plan, it’ll be Inoue vs Nakatani in Tokyo next.
*Odds subject to change - prices accurate at the time of writing*
