The “Monet’s Garden” Old Roan Chase is a Grade 2 National Hunt steeplechase run on the Mildmay course at Aintree. A total of sixteen fences are jumped in the contest. The race was first run in 2004 under the title of the Totesport Wigan Chase.
This race kick starts the season for the top two and a half milers, having been won by the likes of Kauto Star, Monet’s Garden (2007, 2009, and 2010), Alberta’s Run, Wishful Thinking and Sound Investment in previous years.
Here we take a look and the trends and statistics over the last 10 renewals of race plus a rundown of some the runners:
Weight (wins-placed-runners):
11st +: 6-8-36
10st 13lb or less: 4-6-46
The last eight winners have carried 10st 7lb or more which is good news for that handful of runners at the top of the handicap.
Age (wins-placed-runners):
5-y-o to 8-y-o: 3-9-43
9-y-o to 12-y-o: 7-5-35
Five out of the last ten winners have been aged ten or more so the older horses are not easy to dismiss.
Ratings
154+ : 6-8-35
153- : 4-6-46
The last ten winners have been rated 150 or higher.
Ten important trends to note
- 10/10 had previously finished in the top 3 of a G1 contest.
- 10/10 ran at a G1 track last time out.
- 9/10 were making their seasonal debut.
- 9/10 had previously won at G1 or G2 level.
- 8/10 had previously won over 20/21f.
- 8/10 had 19+ previous career starts.
- 9/10 had their last start in a Graded race.
- 10/10 had an OR of 150+.
- 8/10 had 4+ previous Chase victories.
- 8/10 had their last start at either Cheltenham or Aintree.
Trainer form:
Philip Hobbs trained the winners of this in 2004 and 2014. He saddles Royal Regatta this year.
Paul Nicholls has been responsible for sending out the favourite five times in the last ten years. He is represented by Bouvreuil and Warriors Tale this year.
Tom George and Alan King have sent out ten horses between them with only Tom George managing to hit the frame on a single occasion. That must be a slight worry for backers of Smad Place and God’s Own even if the latter was the runner-up last season.
Price
The last ten winners have ranged from 9/4 to 14/1
The Principle Contenders
Cloudy Dream
Malcolm Jefferson’s runner went from being a smart hurdler to having a great first season over fences. The seven-year-old won three of his seven starts, finishing runner-up on the four other occasions. His efforts in defeat included a staying on six-length second to Altior in the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival which was no mean feat.
He rounded off last season with an easy victory at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting.
God’s Own
God’s Own, runner-up twelve months ago, attempts to go one better in this Aintree Grade Two on Sunday. Beaten a length and three-quarters by Third Intention last year, Tom George’s triple Grade One-winner is reported to be in great shape.
He runs off a mark of 166 again which will not be an easy task.
Tea For Two
The Nick Williams-trained Tea For Two was the winner of The Bowl back here in April under Lizzie Kelly and the family team will be aiming for great things again with the eight-year-old.
He looks better treated at the weights than God’s Own and has to be given serious consideration.
Bristol De Mai
Won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last January by a country mile but failed to register another win afterwards. He was seventh, twenty lengths behind Sizing John in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March and only managed fifth to Tea For Two in the The Bowl at Aintree.
The six-year-old was forced to miss his intended return at Stratford last week due to quick ground.
Third Intention
Winner of this race last year and Colin Tizzard has managed to get him here on the same mark. Comes back to Merseyside as a ten-year-old and may just need the run first time out.
Shantou Village
Lots of support for this horse in the betting this week but the worrying thing is the slow start to the season for the Neil Mulholland stable, granted they did record a double at Sedgefield this week.
He is only seven years old and has won four of his five starts over fences, so there should be much more to come this season. He enjoys decent ground so would not want it too soft on Sunday.
Vaniteux
Vaniteux has two entries at the weekend and may head to either Cheltenham on Saturday or the Old Roan chase at Aintree on Sunday for his Pond House debut.
Formerly trained by Nicky Henderson, he put in a great performance behind Altior & Special Tiara at Sandown, and although well beaten in the end in The Ryanair he ran with plenty of promise.
This looks a horse to give the each-way backers a good run for their money.
Devils Bride
The Henry de Bromhead-trained Devils Bride is the sole Irish raider in Sunday's feature race. Michael O'Leary's 10-year-old ran well for a long way in the Galway Plate until falling at the last, but then struggled at Killarney after that.
Waiting Patiently
Malcolm Jefferson has also entered Waiting Patiently for this weekend's two-and-a-half-mile Grade Two, but he is unlikely to line up unless conditions deteriorate and the heavens open.
Waiting Patiently is unbeaten in three starts over fences since joining Jefferson from the recently retired Keith Reveley.
Summary
Another competitive renewal of the Old Roan Chase and there looks like being a fairly sizeable field lining up.
Cloudy Dream looks a worthy favourite and should run a solid race but that string of seconds he racked up last season may just put the jitters up a few punters looking for a solid win bet.
Should Vaniteux take up his Aintree engagement he should represent some each-way value in the race at a track that David Pipe did extremely well at last season.
