After suffering their worst ever election defeat the Conservatives were a husk of a party in 2024. They had fundamentally lost the trust of the electorate and been punished for it mercilessly. They appeared to be rudderless. Broken even.
Whoever took on the reins therefore, in light of Rishi Sunak’s resignation, was inheriting what can only be deemed a poisoned chalice. The public were not yet through with punishing the party, meaning a spell in the political wilderness beckoned. Moreover, the newly formed Reform had clear intentions to position themselves as the government’s main opposition.
Succeeding Sunak then was the very definition of a no-win situation. Whoever that person may be was destined to become a placeholder, a politician who could begin the slow process of rebuilding the Tories but who would never be given proper credit for doing so, and certainly not rewarded with a residency in 10 Downing Street.
That person of course was Kemi Badenoch and it’s fair to say her stint to date as Conservative leader has not been spectacular.
She has had her good days for sure, making Sir Keir Starmer squirm at the dispatch box. But she has also failed to make any significant inroads into the hearts and minds of the British masses, many of whom would struggle to name her.
All of which is to explain why, just one year almost to the day since Badenoch saw off the challenge of Robert Jenrick and was appointed party leader, there is already a viable discussion to be had regarding who comes next.
Robert Jenrick - 11/10
Courted by Reform and considered one of the few titans within the Tories, Jenrick is an avowed hardliner who is determined to haul his party as far to the right of Labour as possible.
Rising quickly through the party ranks, the MP for Newark was appointed Secretary of State for Housing under Boris Johnson, becoming one of the youngest cabinet members for many decades in the process.
He was later -briefly – installed as Secretary of State for Health under Liz Truss.
It was his stint as Minister of State for Immigration once Rishi Sunak took charge that really made his name, however.
Jenrick vociferously backed the highly controversial Rwanda deportation plan and though the scheme was ultimately aborted he had established himself as an uncompromising figure, unafraid to make divisive decisions.
Last year, the 43-year-old took on Badenoch in a leadership battle, eventually losing out by 13% of the votes, but it’s surely only a matter of time before he challenges her again.
An informal – but traditionally upheld – ruling by the 1922 Committee states that any incoming Prime Minister should have a one-year grace period. Badenoch has now had that.
Jenrick will also be acutely aware that he has a large tract of the party behind him, and will no doubt be ready to move if next May’s local elections prove disastrous for the Tory leader.
There is a clear reason why the self-affirmed Donald Trump fan is almost evens in the politics betting. The Conservative faithful are either Badenoch supporters or reside in Jenrick’s camp. The others look on from afar.
James Cleverly - 9/2
If anyone can derail the Jenrick juggernaut however it is the Secretary of State for Housing who has pointedly refused to rule out another challenge of his own.
Cleverly lost out in the Tory leadership race last year, but only narrowly, securing 37 votes to Badenoch’s 42 and Jenrick’s 41, and a good indicator of how highly he is regarded by the party faithful was the collective gasp that accompanied the results being read out.
Many believed the top job was his for the taking, the MP for Braintree being a short-priced favourite in the betting until the final moments.
In response to the set-back Cleverly cleverly stepped away from the limelight, declining all invitations to join the shadow cabinet and instead spend eight months on the back benches.
By doing so he could claim he was ‘taking stock’ when in fact, presumably at least, he was distancing himself from the initial mess the party was in.
A shrewd operator, who espouses moderate views, Cleverly poses a real threat to Badenoch’s leadership and, in turn, Jenrick’s aspirations.
Katie Lam - 9/1
Name recognition is a problem for Lam though perhaps only for the time being. Her inexperience at top level politics is also an issue but again, that is a situation that will resolve itself.
The 34-year-old MP for Weald of Kent is certainly going the right way about improving the first problem, making headlines across 2025 with views that leave little room for nuance, and don’t hold back for sensibilities.
In October this year she went too far, stating that legally settled families in the UK should be deported to ensure the country is ‘culturally coherent’.
Though Kemi Badenoch initially defended her words the party later issued a statement insisting she had spoken ‘imprecisely’.
Lam supported Jenrick at the last leadership battle and will likely be given a prominent position within the shadow cabinet should he prevail.
Boris Johnson - 10/1
You can’t keep a good man down and the same can be said of the former Prime Minister who has repeatedly bounced back from potentially career-ending moments.
Can Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson do so again, three years after leaving office in disgrace following the ‘Partygate’ scandal?
It feels exceedingly improbable but frankly writing off the enduring appeal of the Right Honourable Member of Parliament for Henley has made fools of an awful lot of pundits down the years.
An Ipsos poll conducted last August revealed that he remained the ‘people’s choice’ to replace Badenoch though perhaps this should be taken with a pinch of salt. A quarter of those asked could not name a single Tory MP.
Jeremy Hunt - 16/1
It really does highlight the dearth of talent within the Conservative ranks at present that Hunt is reportedly in the running.
The former Foreign Secretary ran against Johnson in 2019 and was comprehensively beaten. In 2024 he declined to once again throw his hat into the ring, around this time too stepping away from frontline politics for ‘a few years’.
