With Sir Keir Starmer’s Premiership reportedly on the rocks just 18 months after entering Downing Street speculation grows as to who might replace him.
Naturally, the lion’s share of the Prime Minister’s cabinet firmly feature in the politics betting to usurp their current leader and this is entirely logical.
Should Labour jettison the man who guided the party back into power, after 14 years spent on the sidelines, it will unquestionably weaken their standing in British politics. Perhaps temporarily. Perhaps not.
This would be a sizable risk given how Nigel Farage’s Reform party are rising to prominence, positioning themselves as the main opposition following the Conservatives’ dramatic fall from favour.
Reform have both eyes firmly fixed on the next General Election and if the Labour government are undermined by internal strife that simply plays into their hands.
A strong presence therefore is critical in ensuring a retention of power when the public next head to the polling stations. Ideally a politician with name recognition.
Ideally someone with experience of making seismic decisions on the front benches. Someone who can reunite the party and instate some stability is also key. Then there’s charisma to consider and all that.
With these factors in mind, it’s no surprise to see Wes Streeting presently priced up as favourite to succeed Starmer at number 10. The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care is an excellent public speaker who is a familiar face on our television screens, appearing on Question Time on multiple occasions.
The same can be said of Yvette Cooper, who is 12/1 in the running.
Yet it is not solely cabinet members in the frame. Until last year Angela Raynor was Labour’s Deputy Leader, a breaching of the ministerial code resulting in her resignation.
An eminent figure within the Labour ranks, Raynor’s ousting now poses a genuine threat to Starmer’s position.
Andy Burnham meanwhile is arguably the populist choice to challenge the PM. With vast experience on the front lines of politics, having served in Gordon Brown’s government back in the day, the Mayor of Greater Manchester has since furrowed an individual path.
Subsequently, his distance from any of the scandals or criticisms that blight any government – regardless of party – surely puts him in the reckoning.
Here is a breakdown of the main contenders to potentially inherit the Labour crown.
Wes Streeting - 4/1
If widespread speculation has any substance we can conclude that discussions were recently had about the possible ousting of Sir Keir Starmer.
There was to be a coup, or at least a viable attempt at one, and the man in the frame to usurp the Prime Minister was Streeting, a leading figure within the party ranks having been appointed Secretary for Health following Labour’s election victory in 2024.
When Number 10 briefed journalists – off the record naturally – about the ‘plotters’ and their intentions, before the coup was fully formed, Streeting’s aides were at pains to distance him from it.
“These claims are categorically untrue. Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life.”
The quickly released statement referred to his cancer diagnosis in 2021 and the care he received thereafter.
The 42-year-old Londoner is a ferocious and eloquent debater on party policies and crucially has authentic working class credentials having been brought up on a council estate.
Regrettably, that seems to matter still.
Angela Raynor - 6/1
Identifying as a socialist, on the ‘soft left’ of the party, Raynor grew up in poverty and left school without any qualifications having become pregnant aged 16.
Gaining an NVQ in social care she became a care worker before being elected as a trade union representative for Unison.
It was around this period when she joined the Labour party and her star rose swiftly, gaining a parliamentary seat in 2015 and finding herself touted for the leadership just a year later.
Interestingly, in the 2015 Labour Leadership race she nominated Andy Burnham.
A string of prominent positions under Jeremy Corbyn saw her instated as the party’s deputy leader in 2020, subsequently becoming Deputy Prime Minister in 2024 along with the role of Secretary for Housing.
It was joint positions she held only for 14 months, a scandal concerning an incorrect amount of tax paid on one of her properties triggering a drawn-out resignation.
She has trust to regain from the British public as a consequence of this.
Andy Burnham - 7/1
Burnham’s odds in the betting is a reflection of his standing within the Labour party, this despite not currently being ‘inside the tent’ so to speak. Instead, in 2017 he took on the role of Mayor of Greater Manchester, two years after he unsuccessfully stood to replace Ed Miliband as party leader.
Technically, the proud Lancastrian is ineligible to run this time out, what with not being an elected MP, which makes his forming of Mainstream – a network connected to Labour but independent of it – a fascinating development.
He is rumoured to run for a forthcoming byelection in Gorton and Denton, representing Mainstream, and should he do so – and win – expect his odds to shorten significantly.
That’s because the ‘former Blairite’ turned ‘aspirational socialist’ has all of the data on his side. A recent YouGov/Sky News survey decreed that 62% of Labour members would support Burnham over Starmer while he topped another respected poll for potential challengers to the PM.
Shabana Mahmood - 7/1
The Home Secretary was recently described by Sky News as the ‘new hard woman of British politics’, a depiction largely based on a tough stance taken on immigration.
Declaring that ‘Illegal migration’ is ‘tearing our country apart’ Mahmood’s words would usually be attributed to opposing parties, stereotypically not in keeping with left-wing ideologies.
It remains to be seen whether her hardline approach to an incendiary subject appeals to the Labour faithful but what is not in doubt is that the qualified barrister from Birmingham has wasted little time in making an impact and grabbing headlines.
It is perhaps telling that one of Mahmood’s political idols growing up was Margaret Thatcher though the former was keen to point out she shared very few of the latter’s beliefs.
Ed Miliband - 8/1
The day before the 2015 General Election, The Sun published a front page photograph of the Leader of the Opposition eating a bacon sarnie.
His face was contorted as he chewed and clearly the newspaper’s intention was to portray Ed Miliband as a comical figure. A man who struggles to even finish off a sandwich.
Just 24 hours later the Conservatives won by a small overall majority.
Nobody knows for sure how effective that pic was but certainly it has come to haunt the politician, who resigned as Labour leader following the election loss.
Returning to the back benches, Miliband spoke out about inequality, climate change, and campaigned on behalf of Remain ahead of the Brexit referendum.
Resurrecting his political career he was brought back into the fold in 2020, joining Starmer’s shadow cabinet. He currently serves as Secretary for State for Energy Security and Net Zero.
It has been an admirable renaissance from a moment that could have defined him. It can even be argued that the past decade has given Miliband a credibility he previously lacked.
