We’re approaching the penultimate weekend of the 2023-24 season, and there is still much drama to unfold and many fates to be decided.
Matchday 37 also brings about several midweek fixtures, and depending on results beforehand, it could determine how the likes of Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham, Brighton, Manchester City and Manchester United all line up.
What we can expect - is a lot of goals - as those with nothing to play for tend to perform with the shackles off.
Typically, we would see an increase of around 0.26 goals per game for these sides, and therefore, it is worth considering when planning your Premier League betting strategies.
Manchester United vs Arsenal
The Gunners travel to Old Trafford with a terrible record: just one league win in sixteen at the Theatre of Dreams, but hopefully, for Mikel Arteta, the tables have turned, and Arsenal can maintain their push for the title.
And the travelling North Londoners could not have chosen a better time to play Manchester United.
The Red Devils are in total disarray: they have a squad riddled with injuries to key players, and they look devoid of confidence, having taken just one win in seven, and that was against bottom-side Sheffield United.
Late goals, poor refereeing decisions, and moments of brilliance papered over the cracks as United defied their underlying data. But now we’re seeing a side that has reverted to the norm.
Defensively, United have been truly awful, and over this period, they sit 17th for Goals Against (16) and 18th for xGoals Conceded (15.3), while at the opposite end, their 10.04 xG is bottom half (13th).
This all points to an away win, as Arsenal look to make it seven wins on the road (from eight), a run that includes six clean sheets.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
This is a tough match to call. Liverpool are now assured of third place, with no realistic chance of catching Manchester City or Arsenal.
Meanwhile, Villa could be bouncing after a fantastic Europa Conference League comeback in Greece or smarting from their semi-final exit.
Either way, it looks as though Champions League football will return after Spurs’ recent capitulation left them seven points clear in fourth place.
Overall, both sides have had pretty decent seasons, although Liverpool will feel disappointed that they couldn’t add another trophy to the cabinet in Jurgen Klopp’s final year.
We were talking about a potential quadruple at one point after the Reds’ Carabao Cup victory, but three games in early April ended all hopes of more silverware, having already seen the side lose to Manchester United in the FA Cup.
Barring the opening day loss at St James’ Park, Villa started the season well, sitting in fourth at the halfway point, just three points behind the leaders.
But their overperformance in the early months finally caught up with them, and all talk of a potential title challenge quickly disappeared.
Coming into this match, neither side is in particularly good form, with both around midtable over the last five game weeks.
However, one would assume that Villa should have the greater desire to get three points, although the predicted metrics favour the away team, giving them a 59 per cent chance of victory. Still, the numbers fail to provide any context regarding external factors that will influence the match.
Since mid-March, only three teams have had a worse xG Conceded than Villa (15.7), who conceded 12 goals, although they kept two clean sheets.
Meanwhile, for all their faults, Liverpool continue to be a threat: 19.24 xG (2nd), although an underperformance in front of goal means only 16 goals scored.
Defensively, the Reds may consider themselves a little unfortunate, conceding 12 goals from only 7.4 xGC, an underperformance only Sheffield United can better.
Expect goals with the OVERS betting market being the primary focus of my interest.
Newcastle United vs Brighton and Hove Albion
The Magpies’ attack will be hoping to treat their supporters to another goal fest in their final home game of 2023-24.
Newcastle have found the back of the net on 15 occasions over the previous four matches as they hunt for a European qualifying place.
Since Gameweek 30, Newcastle have had the third-best xG per game (2.5), scoring 19 goals, which only Chelsea and Manchester City can better.
Despite a penalty miss at Turf Moor, Alexander Isak has been unlocked, with eleven goal involvements (8 goals and three assists) averaging 1.17xG per 90.
The Seagulls’ season was seemingly over weeks ago, as injuries have decimated the squad. In 2022-23, the group pushed hard to make the Europa League.
But, the rigours of European football have taken its toll, and last weekend’s win over Aston Villa was only their second in the league since February.
Brighton are one of the biggest underperformers on xG conceded (51.5), and this all bodes well for a Newcastle side, who have only lost once at home in 2024, scoring in every game.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Crystal Palace
This is another game flagged for a possible goal fest. The Eagles have become an offensive force under Oliver Glasner, with Eberechi Eze, Jean-Phillipe Mateta and Michael Olise thriving under the new boss.
The team has 15 goals in their last six matches, including a four-goal thumping of Manchester United on Monday night.
Glasner has used the time since he arrived well, implementing a new style and philosophy, which will stand the side in good stead for next season.
For Gary O’Neil, things are ending on a bit of a sour note, but what can’t be overlooked is his fantastic job after arriving only days before the start of the new campaign. Wolves are safe with games to spare, and a top-half finish is achievable despite one win in eight.
The home side are slight favourites, but on current form, Palace look to be the value on a ground where Brentford, Bournemouth and West Ham have all won.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
